2015年对于中国商业来说是特别有挑战的一年。中国股市剧烈震荡,出乎意料的汇率浮动调整,政府经济政策暧昧不明,经济增速放缓,生产价格下跌,进口大幅下降,均宣告中国曾经强势的经济增长正在接近尾声。在这种不安情绪的背后,是中国长期以来预期会发生,但可能会不断调整的经济转型,即由低端制造业为主的经济转型为高附加值的产品与服务型经济。
美国企业需要适应这一新形势。营收增长预期在放缓,投资率增速放缓甚至降低,经营利润回调,本土竞争日趋激烈。但有些情况仍然没变,包括监管与政策环境仍然偏袒本地企业,知识产权保护依然薄弱。尽管遭遇这些挑战,美国企业仍然没有放弃在中国经营的决心,并将更重视中国新经济的增长引擎——可支配收入与消费者支出的增长,电子商务的发展,对医疗服务需求的增加,城市化的不断推进,以及改良的基础设施所带来的内地城市的新市场。要利用这些机会,企业就必须接受创新和新兴的商业模式,同时敦促政府采取必要的改革,保证市场力量更广泛深入地扎根于经济之中。
中国中央政府一直在为经济转型做准备,寻求解决意料中的经济趋缓的办法。例如通过产业政策,如《中国制造2025》,打造高端制造业。通过“互联网+”1概念将互联网技术与制造业相结合以提升增长。“一带一路”倡议通过大型基建项目加强中国与中亚、东南亚以及非洲国家的联系,这当中可能会有国有大型企业的参与。与此同时,政府还推出了激励政策与资金支持帮助本地龙头企业以及创造就业机会。至于这些倡议能否产生预期效果还需要拭目以待。政府真正改革国有企业的决心暂不明朗,而且由大规模失业造成的社会不稳定会抑制整体结构改革的热情。
我们已经不可能用一个词来描述美国在华企业的情况。中国经济呈现多样化,某些领域增长迅速,而另一些则停滞不前。老的经济(包括重工业,低端制造出口,基础设施和房地产)与快速增长的新经济(包括先进的制造业,电子商务,服务业,环境保护技术和产品以及针对日益增长的中产阶级的服务)共存。同样,美国在华企业的情况也因为其所在行业以及其他各种原因有很大的不同。
上海美国商会《2015-2016年中国商业报告》报告摘要(中文):
- 大部分受访企业仍然保持盈利(71%),对2015年与2016年的营收期望降低,投资水平趋缓。
- 只有61%的受访企业表示2015年的收入有所增长,与2014年的75%相比,这一数据明显降低。而且,收入下滑的企业由去年的11%增加到今年的23%, 几乎增加了一倍。就制造业而言,收入下滑的企业占33%。总体而言,67%的企业认为2016年收入会继续增长,而涨幅会下降10%。
- 制造业增速放缓的趋势最为显著,零售业继续看涨,服务业好坏参半。20%的制造业企业计划在2016年裁员。而各产业的平均值在12%。
- 大部分受访企业(81%)计划在2016年谨慎增加投资。2015年投资增幅在1%至15%的企业,由去年的39%增加到56%。展望未来,61%的企业计划小幅增长投资,19%的企业计划减少投资。2015年,这个数据为16%, 而在2014年,只有4%的企业计划减少投资。零售业还是最看好未来的。
- 长期而言,展望2020年,80%的受访企业持乐观或者非常乐观的态度。虽然这个数据看上去很高,但和近几年相比还是有点下滑,是自2008年(81%)以来最低的一年。零售业最乐观(88%),服务业紧随其后(81%),制造业是74%。
- 已经不可能用一个词来描述美国在华企业。中国经济呈现多样化,某些领域增长很快,而另一些则停滞不前。同样,美国在华企业的情况也因为其所在行业以及其他各种原因有很大的不同。
- 2016年的主要风险来自成本上升、国内竞争加剧以及经济增速放缓。互联网的质量,数据安全和商业机密保护成为新的艰巨挑战。
- 就长期风险而言,来自中国本土企业的竞争被认为是未来五年内对美国在华企业的首要干扰。70%的受访美国企业认为中国政府对本土企业和外资企业的区别对待,监管不公平。60%的受访企业表示中国政府更偏袒本土企业。(与去年的54%相比,有明显提高)。
- 监管与政府政策的变化,以及难以预测的财政政策,令人担忧。感到监管透明度有所提高的受访企业由2014年的14%提高到今年的28%, 但对政策的贯彻和落实的一致性仍有很多担心。
- 美国在华企业寻求的关键改革:加强法律体系,简化行政审批与税务流程,降低市场准入限制。
- 美国在华企业为中国市场量身定制产品和服务,而且希望进一步发展。但49%的企业表示中国缺乏对知识产权的保护和执行,这制约了他们在研发和创新领域的投资。
- 美国企业几乎还没有进入中国的电子商务市场。美国企业必须建立起本地化的能力,接受一系列新的平台,更快地适应中国迅速改变的购买行为。
- 政府进行经济改革的能力以及是否真正允许跨国企业参与市场竞争,将决定中国未来经济发展的成败。
CHINA BUSINESS REPORT 2016 Executive Summary:
- Most companies remain profitable (71 percent) but revenue growth and investment levels are slowing for 2015 and 2016.
- Only 61 percent of companies reported revenue growth for 2015, a significant decrease from the 2014 level of 75 percent. Moreover, the number of companies with declining revenues more than doubled to 23 percent from last year’s 11 percent. Among manufacturers, the number is 33 percent. Seventy-six percent of companies overall expect revenue growth in 2016, but mostly below 10 percent.
- Manufacturing is leading the slowdown, with retail remaining more confident about growth and services showing mixed results. Twenty percent of manufacturing companies anticipate layoffs in 2016, as opposed to 12 percent across all sectors.
- Most companies (81 percent) plan to increase their investment in 2016, but with greater caution across all industries. The number of companies in 2015 with investment increases in the 1-15 percent range expanded to 56 percent from last year’s 39 percent.
- Looking ahead, 61 percent expect investment increases in this smaller range and 19 percent expect to decrease their investment, compared to 16 percent in 2015 and 4 percent in 2014. Here too, retail is the most bullish.
- Looking long term to 2020, 80 percent of companies maintain an optimistic or very optimistic outlook. Although that number is high, it represents a drop from recent years and the lowest response since the 2008 figure of 81 percent. The retail sector reports the highest optimism (88 percent), followed by services (81 percent), then manufacturing (74 percent).
- It is no longer possible to describe the U.S. business experience in China in a single phrase. The Chinese economy is diverse, with areas of high growth and deep stagnation. Likewise, the experience of U.S. companies can vary significantly by industry and for different reasons. Costs, domestic competition and economic slowdown are seen as key risks for 2016. New issues such as Internet quality, data security and protection of commercial secrets were also identified as significant challenges.
- In terms of longer term risks, competition from China’s private companies is viewed as the number one disrupter to U.S. companies over the next five years. U.S. companies (70 percent) report that local and foreign businesses are subject to unequal regulatory treatment, with 60 percent saying that local companies within their industry receive preferential treatment (up from 54 percent last year).
- Regulation and government policy changes, along with unpredictable fiscal policy, were also significant concerns. There was an increase in those who felt regulatory transparency had improved (28 percent vs. 14 percent for 2014) but concerns about inconsistent implementation remain.
- Key reforms sought by U.S. businesses: strengthened legal institutions, streamlining of administrative approvals and taxation, and elimination of market access restrictions.
- U.S. companies are customizing products and services for the China market and would do more, but 49 percent reported that a lack of IPR protection and enforcement constrains their investment in innovation and R&D.
- China’s e-commerce market is still largely untapped by U.S. companies. U.S. companies must build up local capabilities, embrace a range of platforms and respond more quickly to fast-changing purchasing behavior.
- China’s ability to drive economic reforms and allow truly open market participation for global companies will determine China’s future economic success.